Sitemap - 2022 - The GRYNING Times

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The GRYNING Essays

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God Jul

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Optimism for 2023

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BoJ and a Gilt-esque Spiral?

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Auto's Rolling Over

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Real Return...

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Fed to Maintain Chokehold

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Fed's Illogical Formula

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"I don't want to over tighten." - Powell

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All Eyes on Monthly CPI

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Inflation & Fed Rates - a doozy of a week.

The Gryning | Essays

The Gryning | Essay's

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China - the exporter of deflation - opening up.

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Positive Real Rates in Sight

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Is the 10yr signaling an over-restrictive Fed?

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Oil's Price Cap

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Will we see Retrenchment?

Market Musings | Nov'22 Update

ETF Dashboard

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Will the Fed will be forced to take its foot off of the brakes?

ETF Dashboard

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Markets Liked It

ETF Dashboard

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Oil & Jobs factor into lower Inflation

ETF Dashboard

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What has Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) told us, explicitly, about jobs?

ETF Dashboard

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Do the Bulls have it?

Giving Thanks for What is Offered

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ETF Dashboard

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Monetary & Fiscal Dominoes at the ready.

ETF Dashboard

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A dissenting voice from the Fed.

ETF Dashboard

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A Deflationary Vortex?

ETF Dashboard

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Peak Fed Lunacy

ETF Dashboard

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Through the Inflation Tunnel

ETF Dashboard

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Russia/NATO: Has the figurative line been crossed?

ETF Dashboard

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Student Debt Cancellation - Struck Down - and Inflation.

ETF Dashboard

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U.S. Chip Independence

ETF Dashboard

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Market Regime Change?

ETF Dashboard

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The tide has gone out; Tech companies, SPACs, Cryptos

ETF Dashboard

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Falling dollar, rising gold & crypto blow up.

ETF Dashboard

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A power shift in Congress and dollar's decline.

ETF Dashboard

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Part China, Part Midterms, Bulls Abound

October Update

Dashboard

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Can the midterm's prevent another Uncle Point?

Dashboard PM

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Rates rising slower, but higher.

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Should the Fed raise rates?

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

3.75% (+75bps) Priced In.

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Intervention induced stability.

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Will Value to Continue lead Style Factors?

Dashboard PM

Oil - From a Higher Base

Dashboard AM

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Republicans Sweep: House & Senate

Dashboard

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Split Congress & Seasonality - both Bullish.

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

3 Uncle Points followed by a Commodities Cycle?

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Should this Inflation be Unwelcome by Policymakers?

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

What Break's Next?

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Inflation Manipulated Down. Activity?

Dashboard PM

Underestimating Risk or Underestimating Intervention

Dashboard AM

Dashboard PM

Dashboard AM

Are Stocks Cheap?

Dashboard

Significant Turning Points

Dashboard

CPI: Over or Under?

Dashboard

Back at "Uncle Point"

Dashboard

U.S. Housing

Dashboard

Wage - Price Gap

Portfolio Musings | September

Dashboard

Inflation measures: Unemployment & Wages.

Dashboard

A Significant Turning Moment?

Dashboard

The Fuel of Intervention

Dashboard

Central Bank Coordination is Bullish

Dashboard

Fed have Projected Caution

The Month What Was | September

Dashboard

The Crushing of Inflation Expectations

Dashboard

Markets Uncle Point

Dashboard

Powell to Walk it Back?

Dashboard

Rapidly Declining Currencies

Dashboard

Recent Guidance a Step Too Far?

Portfolio Dashboard

Forward Guidance & Demand Destruction

Fed's Quarterly Economic Projections!

Central Bank's Lacking Firepower

Can the Fed under-deliver?

A Look Ahead: Fed & Nov Elections

FedEx doing the Walmart

The Gryning | Portfolio

Bond & Yields . . . US, ECB & BOJ

Inflation Suprise, Positions Unwound.

Controlling Inflation or Inducing Deflation

Inflation (CPI) Anticipation

II

ECB Preview & the Role of Energy

A Sovereign Debt Crisis (pending) in Europe...

The Gryning | Portfolio

Interest Rate Hike Cycle at an End?

Jobs Report Preview; "Bad News is Good News".

Did August form an Inflation Top?

The Tough Talk of Central Bankers

The Gryning | Portfolio

Central Bank Digitial Currency in Q2-23.

The Fed in Crisis...

Negative Earnings Without Energy

The Gryning | Portfolio

Hawkish Powell...I dont think so.

More Fuel on the Inflation Fire

The Gryning | Portfolio

A Pause before J-Hole?

Jackson Hole & Quantitive Tightening?

Towards Jackson Hole & CBDC

Fed's Bluff & Strategy

The Gryning | Portfolio

FOMC Minutes - High Inflation & Hyper Growth

Walmart...

The Resistance of 200 SMA...

Back to Status Quo

Hotel California Guests - QE & Low Rates

Monetary Policy Fuel Effects

The Gryning | Portfolio

A Cooler Number?

Inflation + CBDC = Long Gold

Inflation By Design

The Significance of Wednesday (27/07/22).

The Gryning | Portfolio

Pelosi & Semiconductors

Pelosi...will she Deter or Provoke?

The Gryning | Portfolio

Will Growth Outpace Inflation?

The Gryning | Portfolio

When a Recession is Bullish

Over View

High Growth, High Inflation

2H-22 Asset Price Lift Off…

Chips Act - Good For Energy…

H2 Bullish Catalyst… …Tomorrow?

A Good Second Half...

FED 750bp Under, ECB 860bp Under.

Which Sectors are Under Valued?

Financials Delivered. Energy...

Banks (Financials): Healthy & Cheap

Big Four Banks - In Good Shape.

The GRYNING | Portfolio

Fed - Talking a Big Game...

The California Playbook

Inflation, Core or Otherwise.

Primer: Inflation Data Tomorrow

The Fed's thinking on Wage Growth

$UUP $GSG

The Gryning Portfolio

A primer to today's Job's Report

Still a liquidity-fueled strong economy?

A message from $Euro

Are we bottoming?

H2 2022 - Can it be about Recovery?

G7 to NATO - more fiscal spending?

G7 $600 billion commitment

G7 Summation

$UNH

Bullish Nikkei...

Powell's Lip Service

BOJ-devlauing the worlds worst debt burden.

BOJ - the finance shock absorber.

...but money is still cheap!

Powell: "Front End Loading"

Fed - all about the Tightening...

Spigot & Pegs

Fed's MO: Tough (but empty) Talk

European Bonds in Sight

ECB & global sovereign debt default contagion.

1940's Analog

Zombie Economies keeping Rates Down?

Peak Inflation...unlikely

Soft or Hard Landing?

Bad News is Good News...

QT and Unknown Outcomes

$KAP

Housing Market in Moderation

High Oil & Stocks on the Bounce

$KGX

Tightening yet Bullish...

Positive for Stocks

Risk Parity & Rising Rates

"Better align demand with supply"...

$NUE

$VLO

$GFTU

$TSLA

G7 FinMin - Tether in sight?

Higher Prices, not Higher Value

All Talk

If this is the 70's...

Playing the "forward guidance" game...

$AAL, $GLEN, $ULVR, $HIK

G7 in sight

Terra, Tether & the Vulnerability to Runs.

CL1!, XAGUSD

Gold, Bitcoin and the tide going out.

Inflation...has it peaked?

SREN, USO

You can check out, but you can never leave...

The Week in Perspective

Waiting on BOJ for Price Stability

The Markets Like It Like That

FOMC Primer

Higher Wages = Inflationary Pain = Build Back Better

Down Market on 80% Earning's Beat

Central Bank Coordination - Yen Devaluation

Rising Dollar Intensifying Inflation

Strains in the Market & $TSLA $TWTR

Polarity: West tightening, China easing.

Hedging into the Weekend?

Profit Taking Dips

Supressed Meaningful Signals

Markets Like Coordination

Interest Rates are a Market Mechanism

Early Days in the Theme

$JPM - healthy activity, same playbook.

Managing "inflation expectations."

Conservative at best

QE is Hotel California

+1% Interest Rate = +1.25% Fiscal Deficit

Fed: Reversing the Balance Sheet

Autopilot Rate Hikes

Inflating Away Debt

Wage Growth - Inflation - Wage Growth

$Oil - Drawing Down Reserves

The race to Double Digit Inflation

Yield Curve Control

Political Appetite: Lockdowns > War

1974 : Rings a Bell

More Kindling

Oil Rationing ... potentially, maybe...

Yield Curve Reversal...pending

50 bps of hikes a quarter

Whats coming...

Bullish

Is China the catalyst to Buy the Fact?

Sold the Rumour, are we Buying the Fact?

Sprinting on the Treadmill

Fed: 800 basis points behind

Inflation Chase is On

Swings Become Exaggerated

Step 3: Chasing It

Unanchoring of Inflation Expectations

An Eye on Euro

Is there a Food Crisis coming?

Oil - sustained demand

Oil on a tear, Fed to not Surprise.

Short-lived...probably not.

Early Stages Bull

"Never let a crisis go to waste"

Patience to be Long

Illiquidity - swings become exaggerated

Preparedness

Risk Aversion or Fed Policy

Biden & Price Controls

Market Rates vs Interest Rates

Crude Oil

Risk Aversion: $GOLD $BTC $WTI & $US10Y

750 bps behind the curve

P/E - Lower P, Higher E

$FB - Growth play at low Valuation

Central Bank Agression - not anytime soon

Sprinting on a Treadmill

It's Re-Rating Time

Snap Shot of QE's

Inflation Expectations

The Fed still Buying Bonds

Volatility, Cash and it's future location.

Redemptions & Forced Liquidations

Powell Sloppy on Purpose

This was expect...This is good

Uglier...and the Better.

$BTC - where are the Shock Absorbers?

Shock Absorbers at the Ready

Post-Financial crisis is not an analog for Post-Pandemic.

Fed: 50 bps in March?

$JPM, $WFC, $C

Putin and the Useful Idiots of Europe

SCOTUS & the Wage Reset

$DXY - it's started!

Dollar & Commodities to Diverge

Fuel For Stocks

$Dollar Cycle - Bearish

Fed: Risk skewed towards?

In Control...Out Of Control

Will we Test the Fed.

The Bulls Have It