Russia/NATO: Has the figurative line been crossed?

Macro Perspectives

---

The G20 leaders are meeting in Indonesia, and we have another World War III flashpoint. This is becoming a theme.

Remember, back in June, it was the week of the G7 meetings, when a litany of war provocations came ... from the Western world;

• The U.S. and G7 allies banned imports of gold from Russia.

• Russia defaulted on its debt, forced by the asset freeze and banking sanctions (transactional restrictions) placed on Russia from the Western world.

• NATO announced plans to increase "troops on high-readiness" from 40,000 to 300,000.

• The G7 included in its communique that they would phase out Russian oil, and in the meantime, threatened price caps on Russian oil imports.

• Finland and Sweden signed an agreement paving the way to join NATO, Putin had already said that he would respond (in kind) if NATO were to deploy military and infrastructure in these bordering countries (Finnish land border, and Swedish maritime border).

• And then, Biden announced the U.S. would ramp up military presence in Europe by opening a permanent army base in Poland (formerly controlled by Russia and a flashpoint of WW2).

Fast forward to today, and as G20 leaders are meeting, we get news that Russia has fired a missile into Poland, with two resulting casualties.

So the literal line has been crossed. Has the figurative line been crossed, to trigger Poland's NATO allies into action?

If we look to markets for clues, the dollar, Treasuries and gold would be soaring.

That has happened.

PS: I would like to invite you to join the Gryning Portfolio - agnostic views coupled with a systematic approach to investing, to create actionable, market beating insights.

Trade Example:

LMT 0.00%↑ Long 397.80 (27/07/22) closed at 470.00 (14/11/22) for +18.15% gain - outperforming the $SPX benchmark by ~19%.

Chart below shows performance based on end of day prices.