What follows are the ramblings of a person that has no greater desire than to be wrong. Dedicated to and for those of us that live, or have Family and loved ones, in and around the Baltic Sea. I draw on the three principles (below) and have taken the liberty to assume that you are interested in what I have to say.
The lessons we need are all around us.
The crisis management playbook, “if you're going to panic, better to panic first and panic the most”.
Risk is not managed, it is assumed and mitigated by those aware.
If I am wrong, this has been an inexpensive (hopefully not intellectually futile) exercise in Geo-Politics.
NB: This is likely to be unstructured, I hope you bear with me. The remarks with segmentation (like this one to the left) are my opinions and chain of thought.
Early this Morning: Several Ukrainian government websites down due to a major a cyberattack. Below is the @MFA_Ukraine website now. It reads in part: "Ukrainians!...All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect worse." Sites of MOD and Education ministry also down.
Well I guess we are seeing the beginning of the cyber campaign. Don't go to any of the compromised Ukrainian govt websites without a virtual machine. I have no idea what the hackers left behind. It's most likely not just the govt websites that got hit in Ukraine. It was probably a broader attack against the government server infrastructure, certainly targeting sensitive (military) data in the process.
A simple look at Flight Tracker followed, specifically looking for military aircraft brought this up:
I have no idea if this is normal routine.
What follows are a set of tweets, in no particular order paraphrasing Russian FM Lavrov;
Russia prepares for any development of events while waiting for a response from the US and NATO on security guarantees.
There is reason to believe that NATO in the coming months may begin to build up forces next to the Russian Federation under the pretext of the situation in Ukraine.
Russia rejects the West's demand to return Russian troops to the barracks, the West has gone too far.
Russia's patience with the actions of the West has come to an end, we have been harnessing for a long time - now is the time to go.
Russia warns the US and NATO: we will not wait forever for an answer.
We will respond if the US refuses our security guarantees and it will be very difficult.
We ask the US to seriously consider our proposals. If they refuse, there will be no going back. Russia will not wait endlessly for something. Our patience is running out.
We are not afraid of sanctions, but we warn you of consequences.
We categorically do not accept the emergence of an alliance (NATO) on Russian borders, this is a real red line. Even if Ukraine will not join NATO, the appearance of strike weapons and US military bases in the Sea of Azov is the second red line.
The participation of Western instructors in the conflict in Donbass will cross all red lines and mean a direct clash between the "Russian people" and the NATO military.
This Lavrov press conference is fucking nuts. I have never seen this kind of language come from the Russian Foreign Minister. Extremely ominous messaging. Where is the cloak, this is all dagger! To Summerise: The Russian FM just walked into a press conference and threatened (in order of appearance) Ukraine, the US, Finland, Sweden, and all NATO countries. The last 2 points above, are they Russia’s “Casus Belli”.
Back to Flight Tracker…We now have 3 U.S. recon flights near Ukraine.
Say what you will about Brexit, the British on holiday or football holigans - they are the only country in Western Europe with the will & ability to fight for principles. The sacrifice of self for the greater good still exists. The French have no balls. The German’s are best summerised by this (by Daria Kaleniuk@dkaleniuk):
What follow’s is from my notes from Feb 2014 - when Russia annexed Crimea. I sadly do not remember the military strategists & authors I got the information from. The order is my own and I have further adapted them to today’s relevance, the idea’s, theories and military concepts are borrowed for my understanding.
GOTLAND
Since October 2014, Russia’s Navy has sent submarines into Swedish territorial waters to gauge the capabilities and test the preparedness of Sweden’s Navy.
The conclusion: Sweden is defenseless.
The obvious targets of Russian aggression along the Baltic Sea, namely Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all share a land border with Russia, therefore there is no need for Russia to mount a large scale air assault when attacking these tiny states. However, once occupied, Putin must keep the US air force and the US Navy out of the Baltic Sea, if he wants to keep the three Baltic states occupied. This is why Russia is preparing to assault, occupy and fortify Sweden’s Gotland Island.
If Russia were to take Gotland and base S-300 or S-400 long range air-defense and K-300P Bastion-P long range anti-ship missile systems on the island, then US air force planes would not be able reach the Baltic States and US Navy ships could not pass the Danish Straits to enter the Baltic Sea. Russia already has S-300 and K-300P, alongside tactical nuclear 9K720 Iskander missiles, stationed in Kaliningrad, but as Poland’s military could destroy Russia’s anti-ship and air-defense systems there, Russia must occupy Gotland a few hours before an attack on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania begins.
This (below) is what is likely to happen, should Russia decide to be the agresser. It’s what Russia did with Crimea and China did with Hong Kong. The lessons we need are everywhere around us!
Putin orders Russia’s military to perform another round of large scale maneuvers. NATO as usual monitors these maneuvers, but refrains from taking any proactive, such as raising its own state of readiness to avoid “provoking Russia”. Just as in earlier maneuvers the three Ropucha-class landing ships of the Baltic Fleet leave Kronstadt harbor to train “shipping vehicles and material to Kaliningrad”. During the night, when the people of Gotland are in bed, Special Forces from Russia’s Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group, dropped off earlier by Russian submarines, attack all communications nodes on the island to sever mobile phone, internet and telephone connections with mainland Sweden, to not only prevent the Swedish government from being alerted, but also to prevent civilians from uploading images and videos of the coming brutal occupation of the island.
With all key installations diligently mapped in advance by Russian spies disguised as tourists the men of the Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group set out to prepare the landing zones for the paratroopers of the Russian Airborne Forces. Meanwhile the Ropucha-class ships leave their course towards Kaliningrad and now head straight for Northern Gotland. A task force consisting of Russian air force transport planes and fighter jets carrying a regiment of paratroopers will enter the Northern Baltic Sea and is likely to be picked up by Estonian radar operators, which alert NATO’s air policing units at Šiauliai.
The two fighter jets (this normally the size of the plicing force but will likely be larger now) are immediately scrambled to intercept the Russian air group, whose size is unknown as Russian radar jamming planes accompany it. Note: NATO fighters are forbidden to interfere unless the Russians enter NATO airspace. At this moment the Russians are only 150km from Gotland, 12 minutes from being able to drop at least a thousand paratroopers.
By now Russian Special Forces have taken control of Gotland’s airport at Visby: air traffic controllers have been eliminated, communications with Sweden severed and the runway illuminated. On Gotland the Russians are likely to face limited resistance - the current redirect of Swedish troops to the island are unlikely to be sufficient, and dare I say it, adequate.
Outside of Gotland, the closest air base is 250km away.
Heavy transport planes carrying S-300 and K-300P batteries land at Visby airport. The beach in Gotland’s North near Fårösund the Ropuchas can unload main battle tanks and BTR-82AM wheeled infantry fighting vehicles of the 61st Marine Brigade. Civilian ferries enter Gotland’s harbors and unload additional reinforcements.
Russia’s ambassador will then likely inform the Swedish government that Russia has taken “temporarily” possession of Gotland to protect Russian speakers in the Baltic States from “fascist NATO aggression”.
25 years of destroying its own armed forces have left Sweden defenseless: We have just 9 Navy Surface Combatants - all lack a close-in weapon system (CIWS). Sweden sold its anti-submarine helicopters. Swedish air force fighter jets can’t/won’t take to the air, as both main bases in Southern Sweden lie within reach of the S-300 batteries on Gotland.
48 HOURS FROM ASSAULT ONE
Russian troops will have already crossed the borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to “free the people” of these three nations from their “fascist governments”.
Russia will have air supremacy over the Baltic States and sea.
ARTICLE 5
The ambassadors of the three Baltic States will then declare that their nations are under attack and request the activation of article 5. Poland, the UK, Denmark, Norway, Canada, France, the US and a few others are likely to agree and want to give NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe free reign to fight back the Russians and liberate the Baltic States. But Turkey, Greece, Germany and a few others may refuse.
Ultimately Germany might block a decision by stating it must first consult its parliament about invoking article 5.
If this happens then the United States, United Kingdom, Poland, France, Norway, Denmark will have to act on their own.
As a non NATO member, the allies will need to ask Sweden for permission to strike Russian position.
Russia’s ambassador to Sweden will have announced that if Sweden were to let allied forces cross its territory Sweden would become a target for nuclear strikes.
THE USEFUL IDIOTS
The media and official notice givers will now be filled by bought sellouts - warning us that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes.
“Resistance is futile”, “this is temporary” - will be the mantra of Swedes and Gotland. Now where have we all heard this before.
The Motion To Invoke Article 5 is withdrawn.
U.S, U.K, and a few others are likely to not accept this. Thereby tearing apart NATO.
NATO is no more, Putins main war goal is acheived with the additional bonus of a few neighbouring states.
END
PS: Since this a Market / Trading account, I promise I wont make a habit of today’s writing, we can keep track of the Geo-Policital situation via proxy. I refer you to the reasoning in this note from Dec 1, 2021.
