The California Playbook

Macro Perspectives

The June inflation report came in hotter than market expectations.

The year-over-year headline CPI is now nearing double-digits, and the monthly inflation number is now reflecting prices rising at a mid-teens annualised rate . . .

This is what happens when you grow the money supply by $6 trillion in two years (a one-third increase).

Still, of the legislative handouts that have been approved over the past two years, three-quarters of a trillion dollars remains unspent - that's more fuel yet to be poured onto the inflation fire.

But just in case you thought that wasn't enough, the democrats are resurrecting "Build Back Better."

This is the cornerstone of the global (G7) agenda, of which, the U.S. administration is in full, explicit cooperation to execute. It's rooted in energy and social transformational policies, and it doesn't get done in the most important constituent country (the U.S.), if the democrats lose control of Congress in November.

What will they do? Whatever it takes. At the moment, this renewed effort to push through over a trillion-dollars of new spending, is being framed as a solution to inflation. This sounds like the California playbook. The carrot: Gas checks for everyone!

Thankfully, Manchin would hold the line against complete insanity.

But this brings us back to my June note, after NATO announced accession plans for Finland and Sweden, following a number of other provocative actions.

Excerpt from 30 June 22 Macro Perspective (click here for full note):

“We know that Western leaders are all coordinating to execute on an economic, social and political agenda. And we know that the current economic environment (high inflation, record high debt and deficits, and record low interest rates) is a conundrum, which threatens the execution of the agenda. Still, we also know that they have the appetite to keep spending, to keep executing.

What better way to excuse more fiscal spending (to get the agenda done) than to enter a global war. And I suspect, if the current proxy war turned into a global war, it would be a war of posturing. It would be as ambiguous as the current war”.