The Month What Was | September

Monthly Update

“A hugely profitable investment that doesn’t begin with discomfort is usually an oxymoron.”
Howard Marks

VaR Shock

September was a rough month for macro and the punches came from numerous directions—in just thirty days, the backdrop in the global market place has become meaningfully more ominous. My aim with this monthly series is to provide you, the readers—primarily the Do It Yourself investors—the most impactful macro events as they relate to risk and asset trends. So, in that spirit, the below is a relatively concise list of relevant macro situations that matter.

1. The UK Gilt Crisis and Yield Curve Control

2. Nord Stream Pipeline Attack

3. Ukraine: Conflict Escalation

4. The EU & UK Natural Gas Crisis

5. Yen Intervention

6. Yuan Intervention

7. The Dollar Wrecking Ball

8. Fed Tightening & US Inflation

9. Public Company Earnings Set to Decline a Lot

10. Extreme bearish sentiment, but position less clear

11. Is BTC Running Out of Sellers?

The Gryning | Portfolio : Summary

September performance*: +5.77%.

Quarter Performance*: +4.75%.

Year-To-Date Performance*: +31.57%.

The Gryning | Portfolio : About

The aim is long term capital appreciation. We will employ long (buy) and short (sell) positions in derivatives, primarily futures and forwards contracts, across the broad asset classes of equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities.

This is a hedge fund strategy, at a fraction of the cost, giving you a diversified portfolio with dynamic (market condition adjusting) asset allocation to maximize returns with minimal market correlation and drawdown control.

If your a Do It Yourself Investor, subscribe above - it’s less than a coffee a day!

PS: When you join The Gryning Times, you’ll get access to two additional portfolio investment idea’s; Uncorrelated Convexity & Alpha|Beta trade idea’s. In an effort to under-promise and over-deliver, I will not disclose the performance for the strategies. The “About” section of this publication has more information on the full range of offerings, and you can always reach to me (aaj.tgt@protonmail.com) if you have any further questions.

---

* Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance of the fund may be lower or higher than the performance quoted.

Investing is risky, and you are reminded that futures, commodity trading, forex, volatility, options, derivatives , and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors, and you should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.