It is remarkable how the forecasters continue to defend models that have been consistently wrong for years. after all, the Fed is the primary example, but it does appear as though nominal GDP is going to continue to run hot
Over the weekend I jotted down some notes as part of my "risk" understanding - looking into macro/central bank policy - came across this stat:
The quarterly exchange of letters between the BOE Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer for not meeting the price stability mandate has now been exchanged for 14 out of the 15 quarters that Andrew Bailey has been the Governor.
Remarkable, stunning and brings out the cynic in me!
But is it really that surprising? It is very easy these days to turn into a conspiracy theorist given stated goals and corresponding actions that have no chance of achieving those goals
“Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “Fooled by Randomness”, 2001.
It is remarkable how the forecasters continue to defend models that have been consistently wrong for years. after all, the Fed is the primary example, but it does appear as though nominal GDP is going to continue to run hot
Over the weekend I jotted down some notes as part of my "risk" understanding - looking into macro/central bank policy - came across this stat:
The quarterly exchange of letters between the BOE Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer for not meeting the price stability mandate has now been exchanged for 14 out of the 15 quarters that Andrew Bailey has been the Governor.
Remarkable, stunning and brings out the cynic in me!
But is it really that surprising? It is very easy these days to turn into a conspiracy theorist given stated goals and corresponding actions that have no chance of achieving those goals
“Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “Fooled by Randomness”, 2001.