so, you have moved on from the trend of the last 3 months to removing the things that are rising in price. seriously, let's just remove the impact of all the things that are going up in price and then inflation will "be" much lower!
While I'm sure that the Fed can do every one of these calculations, they have been very clear that they are going to watch the numbers that print. I would argue there is scant evidence that inflation is heading back to 2%, maybe in our lifetimes. ultimately, housing costs have not been declining at all and show no signs of doing so. that 40% inflow of cash has many more years to work off before it is no longer an issue.
"Insurance of various different kinds—housing insurance, but also automobile insurance, and things like that—that’s been a significant source of inflation over the last few years.” - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
I "removed" the component that Powell specifically discussed in his congressional testimony in an attempt to show what calculations the Fed are doing/looking at.
Inflation below 2% might be far fetched, 6 odd months at 2.5% would however allow Jerome to proclaim 'victory' and will likely bring rates down quicker.
The ultimate train wreck will be funding Social Security and Medicare for the giant Boomers cohort, which seems almost mathematically impossible under the current policy (tax and spending) structure.
I get it, but it strikes me that if they cut with inflation even at 2.5%, and I personally don't think we can get there, it will really open up the opportunity for a significant rebound in inflation as the dollar will almost certainly suffer significantly, at least against gold/btc/commodities
so, you have moved on from the trend of the last 3 months to removing the things that are rising in price. seriously, let's just remove the impact of all the things that are going up in price and then inflation will "be" much lower!
While I'm sure that the Fed can do every one of these calculations, they have been very clear that they are going to watch the numbers that print. I would argue there is scant evidence that inflation is heading back to 2%, maybe in our lifetimes. ultimately, housing costs have not been declining at all and show no signs of doing so. that 40% inflow of cash has many more years to work off before it is no longer an issue.
"Insurance of various different kinds—housing insurance, but also automobile insurance, and things like that—that’s been a significant source of inflation over the last few years.” - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
I "removed" the component that Powell specifically discussed in his congressional testimony in an attempt to show what calculations the Fed are doing/looking at.
Inflation below 2% might be far fetched, 6 odd months at 2.5% would however allow Jerome to proclaim 'victory' and will likely bring rates down quicker.
The ultimate train wreck will be funding Social Security and Medicare for the giant Boomers cohort, which seems almost mathematically impossible under the current policy (tax and spending) structure.
I get it, but it strikes me that if they cut with inflation even at 2.5%, and I personally don't think we can get there, it will really open up the opportunity for a significant rebound in inflation as the dollar will almost certainly suffer significantly, at least against gold/btc/commodities