It's funny, the more I observe Powell and the Fed, the more I've come to believe that they have a plan regardless of the data and are only using the data to support their plan. given that the data has been remarkably mixed, with both strong and weak economic indicators printing regularly, depending on what they want to highlight, they have support. if they really want to cut, then today's revisions will help the case. but if they don't they can simply look at the recent trend in Initial Claims and highlight their decline supports a stronger labor market and the revisions are very backward looking
Agreed - if they hold rates, let's hope they haven't traded an inflationary boom for a deflationary bust.
Separate from the “data dependency” of FED policy, we must also consider politics. The FED is an institution woven into the fabric of the Government, despite the useful chimera of coyly asserting its independence.
Mirroring the Department of Justice’s “sixty-day rule” to not take prosecutorial steps that could influence an upcoming election, I suspect the FED will be loath to make any policy adjustments at their September meeting that surround's the party conventions.
It's funny, the more I observe Powell and the Fed, the more I've come to believe that they have a plan regardless of the data and are only using the data to support their plan. given that the data has been remarkably mixed, with both strong and weak economic indicators printing regularly, depending on what they want to highlight, they have support. if they really want to cut, then today's revisions will help the case. but if they don't they can simply look at the recent trend in Initial Claims and highlight their decline supports a stronger labor market and the revisions are very backward looking
Agreed - if they hold rates, let's hope they haven't traded an inflationary boom for a deflationary bust.
Separate from the “data dependency” of FED policy, we must also consider politics. The FED is an institution woven into the fabric of the Government, despite the useful chimera of coyly asserting its independence.
Mirroring the Department of Justice’s “sixty-day rule” to not take prosecutorial steps that could influence an upcoming election, I suspect the FED will be loath to make any policy adjustments at their September meeting that surround's the party conventions.