Senate Flip to Green Energy?

Macro Perspectives: Mon 23 Nov 2020

We've talked for months about the posturing between the Democrats and the Trump administration on a second relief package.

Pelosi thought she had enough leverage back in July, with the July 31 expiration of the federal unemployment subsidy looming, to force Trump and the Republican Senate into a huge second package - one that would address the Democrats wish list of state bailouts, (most importantly, at the time) voter reform/mail-in voting legislation and a multi-trillion dollar funding for the New Green Deal.

Trump circumvented Pelosi's leverage, by extending the federal unemployment benefits through Executive Order.

Pelosi and company then circumvented Trump by just mass mailing mail-in ballots.

Now, as we've discussed post-election, the Democrats have tried to conjure up new leverage, pushing the "raging virus" narrative, and consequently going back into lockdowns in Democrat-led states. That has been an effort to force the Republican-led Senate to relent on a massive second package (for state bailouts and the New Green Deal).

Trump has sidestepped it again. On Thursday last week, Mnuchin went to the Fed and requested the return of nearly half a trillion-dollars of unused funds from the original Cares Act. This will likely be repurposed for actual relief/aid to businesses and people. With this, the Democrats would no longer be able to use a "lack of aid" as a call for Senate change, as it relates to the two Georgia Senate run-offs coming in January.

This reduces the likelihood of a Senate flip and it reduces the likelihood of the implementation of the economically transformative energy overhaul. With this, we ended the week with the biggest clean energy ETF trading near record highs...​