Roots, Consequences, and What to Expect

The first month of Trump's presidency marked a shift in American governance, challenging the rule of law and reflecting deeper societal disillusionment. Trump’s rise exemplifies this discontent, which has fuelled distrust in institutions alongside growing support for authoritarianism. Similar dynamics are seen globally as populist movements gain traction.

Scarcity, rising pressures, and discontent could lead to conflict and war, making personal, financial, and systemic resilience crucial to navigating turbulent decades ahead.

Trump’s First Month: A Bold Start or a Constitutional Crisis? Balancing Bold Reforms and Democratic Erosion.

The first month of Trump’s presidency has been marked by a series of bold and controversial actions that many view as an unprecedented assault on American governance, challenging the rule of law, undermining constitutional norms, and centralising executive power. From disregarding court orders to questioning the authority of judges, these behaviours have sparked warnings of a "constitutional crisis." However, this crisis is not merely a legal or institutional failure—it reflects a deeper societal disillusionment rooted in decades of economic disenfranchisement.

While critics argue that Trump’s approach risks eroding democratic institutions, supporters contend that his actions are driven by good intentions, such as dismantling bureaucratic inefficiencies, prioritising national interests, and delivering on promises to address long-neglected issues like immigration and economic revitalisation. Some preliminary outcomes, such as deregulation efforts and tax reforms, have been welcomed by segments of the population and industries as steps toward economic growth and job creation. Nevertheless, the aggressive nature of these actions has also deepened political polarisation and raised concerns about the long-term impact on governance and societal trust.

How Economic Disenfranchisement and Elite Indifference Fuel Global Political Upheaval.

Already in 2000, in response to the dotcom crash and then even more since 2008, responses to major crises—such as the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and other disruptions—have disproportionately benefitted elites, leaving 90% of people poorer and feeling abandoned by the system. This widening inequality has fuelled widespread distrust in institutions, rendering appeals to constitutional principles ineffective and opening the door to extreme political behaviours. Trump’s rise and enduring influence are symptoms of this disenfranchisement, as voters, disillusioned with a system they perceive as unfair or even broken, increasingly tolerate or even support authoritarian tendencies. Previous elites, who have been crafting policies that support the status quo and favour the super wealthy, appear oblivious or indifferent to the alienation they have caused, further eroding faith in governance and normalising crisis and lawlessness.

This phenomenon is not unique to the United States. Across developed nations, similar dynamics are at play. In Europe, so-called populist movements have gained traction as citizens express frustration with elites who ignore their needs and disregard electoral decisions. Populism, at its core, involves listening to and addressing the wishes of the people, a principle that aligns with democracy, but its modern manifestations often risk oversimplification, polarisation, and undermining institutions, highlighting the need for leaders to balance responsiveness with responsible governance.

The root causes of this turmoil lie in dysfunctional financial and economic systems that prioritise financial tricks and debt-driven growth, enabling capital owners to profit massively while wage earners fall behind. The 2008 financial and the 2010-2012 European crises exposed these flaws, prompting calls for fundamental reforms. Yet, these calls were subsequently ignored, and the status quo was preserved, deepening the divide between elites and the vast majority.

The Coming Regime Shift: How Elite Overproduction, Inequality, and Institutional Decay Are Driving a Global Revolution.

This situation aligns with the research conclusions of Peter Turchin, who argues that such societal upheaval signals the onset of a genuine revolution in the broad historical sense, defined as a change of governing elites. Turchin’s research highlights how prolonged economic inequality, institutional breakdown, and elite artificial and superficial engagement with real issues can create conditions ripe for revolutionary change, where the existing power structures are replaced by new leadership. One key ingredient is the overproduction of elites, where too many individuals compete for a limited number of high-status positions, leading to intra-elite conflict and fragmentation. Another factor is popular immiseration, where the majority of the population experiences declining living standards and growing inequality, fuelling resentment and unrest. Additionally, state fiscal weakness—governments becoming overburdened by debt and unable to meet public needs—exacerbates the crisis, while eroding social cohesion and trust in institutions further destabilises the system.

Turchin’s framework suggests that the current turmoil is not a short-term anomaly but the culmination of decades-long structural pressures. The rise of populist movements, the erosion of democratic norms, and the growing acceptance of extreme political behaviours are all symptoms of a system in transition. Drawing from my own research on diagnosing and predicting (attempting to at least) crises and catastrophes across economic and (sometimes) social systems, I have observed over the past 20 years the clear and progressive maturation of conditions leading to regime shifts. What we are witnessing today, in my understanding, is the unfolding of symptoms signalling a massive and fundamental regime shift—a transformation that will reshape the foundations of our societal, economic, and political systems. The fundamental transition is underway and will continue to unfold over the next two decades.

For a revolution to lead to positive change, it must replace entrenched elites with a more inclusive and responsive governing class. However, without addressing underlying structural issues—such as wealth concentration, elite overproduction, and institutional decay—the cycle of crisis and instability will persist, eroding the foundations of democratic governance worldwide. To tackle this fundamental crisis, policymakers ought to move beyond abstract legal arguments or appeals to constitutional norms and implement systemic reforms that create a fairer economic system for all, not just the privileged few. Without such changes, the normalisation of crisis and lawlessness will continue to empower leaders who operate outside the rule of law, further destabilising societies.

Navigating the Turbulent Decades Ahead: Scarcity, Conflict, and the Need for Resilience in an Uncertain Future.

We must face reality: these changes are very unlikely to occur smoothly and orderly, given the focus of political elites on the short term. The changes are inevitable, driven by mounting pressures, and are likely to unfold in ways that are both disruptive and painful. History shows that scarcity—whether of empowerment, energy, water, commodities, food, or even intangible resources like a sense of purpose, morality, and human belonging—almost invariably leads to conflicts and wars. As these pressures grow, we must prepare—both personally and financially—for the turbulent years and decades ahead, building resilience in the face of uncertainty.

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