Quantitative Macro | Denmark
Danish Confidence Drops to 2-Year Low
Inflation Concerns Remain Elevated
Danish confidence slipped to -17 in April from -15.5 in March, continuing a slide that extends back to late-2023. The weakness accelerated in late-2024 especially with the conclusion of the U.S. elections.
On data back to late 1995, the consumer confidence indicator for Denmark ranks in its lower 3.7 percentile. Confidence has been higher than this most of the time over this period.
The financial situation over the past 12 months ranked at a weak 7.3 percentile standing, but for the next 12 months an even weaker 1.4 percentile reading is in place. The existence of U.S. tariffs and pushback for Europe to carry more of its own defense burden seem to be adversely impacting Danish sentiment. There may also be some anxiety stemming from President Trump’s stated desire to have Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory, become part of the United States.
The general economy has a confidence ranking at its 13.8 percentile over the last 12 months, but that drops to an all-time low ranking of zero for the next 12 months. All these respondents backed down in April compared to their March readings. The ‘expected’ financial conditions response fell by the most.
In sharp contrast, consumer prices for the last 12 months carried a 92.7 percentile standing; for the next 12 months, that pushes back up to the 98.6 percentile. Meanwhile, unemployment concerns, while ticking lower, have a standing at their 84.6 percentile higher since 1995 less than 16% of the time.
The environmental readings show the favorability of the time to purchase or save for the next or last 12 months (four metrics) all generate readings below their respective median (below a standing of 50%. The time to purchase readings are the weakest in this group.
However, the general financial situation for households currently holds above its historic standing at a reading with a 54.5 percentile standing. But that reading eroded last month.
