"No Rules" Central Banking
Macro Perspectives
Let’s continue from Friday’s note, where once again the 4% level on the 10-year yield seems to be the economy’s Kryptonite.
Each of the events in the chart were driven by the level of interest rates.
The latest victim is Silicon Valley Bank, the specialty bank to venture capital and technology companies - it was taken over today by the FDIC.
As Warren Buffett has said, "only when the tide goes out, do you discover who's been swimming naked."Â The "tide" in this case, is the easy money, low inflation era.Â
The tide has gone out, and the mal-investment has being exposed. That includes high valuation, no earnings tech companies, and now the biggest banker to those companies ... SPACs ... crypto currencies (to name a few). Of course, what else makes that list? Sovereign debt.
It's because of sovereign debt vulnerabilities (U.S. and global), that a 70s and 80s-style inflation fight was never in the cards. Double-digit interest rates were never an option. Instead, the Fed used the bully pulpit, attacking inflation by verbally attacking jobs, wages and the stock market.
Now, will this bank failure in Silicon Valley turn into something more?Â
It was just five months ago that rumors were going around that Credit Suisse, a major global bank, was on the verge of failing. The market started placing bets on another "Lehman moment" for the world - where the failure of a major global trading bank could quickly result in a freeze of global credit.
But as we discussed in my October 04, 2022 note - when the Credit Suisse news was hitting - there is a big difference between now (into perpetuity) and 2008.
A huge difference - There is NO UNCERTAINTY about what central banks can and will do.
There are no longer rules of engagement for central banks. We know (no uncertainty), that they will do "whatever it takes" to maintain financial stability, and to manufacture their desired outcome.
This comes with one very important condition: The "no rules" era of central banking requires cooperation and coordination of the major global central banks.
Indeed, they do continue to cooperate and coordinate very closely.
Now, with all of the above in mind, notice that each of the events of the past nine months have led to lower yields (Friday included). And lower yields, have led to higher stocks (as you can see in the chart below).
