Murky Markets

Macro Perspective: Mon 22 Nov 21

We closed last week without an announcement on the Fed Chair - the White House says it will come this week.

We also end the week, with the crescendo of government spending plans passing through the House. We will soon see if the two Democrat Senators that have resisted the package, will put an end to the madness, or fold to the pressure.

Let's start the week by taking a look at some key charts as we enter the final active trading weeks of the year.

Tech stocks continue to march to new record highs, trading into the top of this one year channel...

Meanwhile rates have, once again, failed to hold above 1.6%, despite the underpinnings of hot inflation...

This rate picture, perhaps driven by the growing possibility of the installment of a new (more dovish) Fed Chair, has taken some wind out of the sails of small caps (which should be leading the way in a recovering economy/rising alongside interest rates).

Adding to some of the pain in small caps (oil and gas stocks) is the pressure that has been applied on oil prices, from some interventionist jawboning from the White House - Oil prices were down 6% on the week & down 11.7% from the recent local highs.

What's the takeaway? Markets continue to look like there is plenty of uncertainty out there. That said, few things will create more uncertainty in markets than murkiness in the path of monetary policy (in this case, who will lead it).