Good News for Trump

Macro Perspective: 12 Aug 2020

Big news came late in the day as Biden selected his running mate: Kamala Harris.

Harris has been the high probability pick, and that should be good news for market stability. And that should be good news for a Trump re-election.

As we discussed yesterday, in my view, Michelle Obama represented the biggest risk to Trump. It had the element of surprise. The media would have gone crazy over it, and it would have opened the door to another Obama White House, in the case of a Biden re-election. That could have been enough to get the Democrats over the line. It didn't happen.

For markets that like certainty, in a world of total uncertainty, this pick should keep the markets focused on the big themes: the progression on the health crisis front, the massive global stimulus (and a bulldog President that will continue to force things through to keep the bridge intact) and building momentum toward a showdown with China, which includes moving the global supply chain to "freedom loving" countries.

This should continue to promote higher global asset prices.

Global Indicies generally had a calm day, selling off into the close, with the broader picture of All Time Highs firmly in their grasp.