Election Status

Macro Perspectives: Fri 16 Oct 2020

With the election looming large, we got town halls last night from both Biden and Trump, head-to-head on different networks.

Everyone knows how the polls lean. Let's take a look at how things look, at this stage, compared to 2016. Here's a look at the evolution of the polls for both Trump/Clinton and Trump/Biden.

As you can see, the margin has been even more favorable for Biden, than it was for Clinton for much of the way. But the path has been similar, and that would suggest that we should start seeing the polls tighten from here on out. We have a catalyst at work, with the town halls now having taken place.

Let's take a look at the electoral map...

As we know, the electoral map favors democrats. Before the voting starts, Real Clear Politics has the democrats starting line at 216 electoral votes, the republicans start at 125 - assuming the grey states are close enough to call "toss-ups." The winner needs 270. 

Let's talk about stimulus. I've thought for a while now that there was no path to a deal. I'm beginning to think we might see a deal before the election, because Trump may concede. Why? If he wins the election and continues with a split Congress, he won't get another penny from Congress, unless the economy gets very, very ugly. Same can be said for a Biden win. If Biden wins and has a split Congress, there is no path to executing his $2 trillion clean energy plan - unless the economy gets very, very ugly.