Earnings' Story
Macro Perspectives
I am humbled and incredibly excited by the response to GRYNING | Technicals - 3 days in and almost at capacity -thank you to all those that joined.
If your considering signing up, there are a limited number of spots left for current readers of The GRYNING Times, please see the bottom of today’s note for more information.
Earnings, economic data, and geopolitics are common catalysts that cause the markets to change its mind.
Any of these can be a positive or negative driver. Sometimes, getting through a catalyst with things not as bad as feared can also be seen as a positive catalyst.
With half of the market reporting, earnings growth is negative while sales growth is staying positive. This means margins are getting squeezed which is why we see cost cutting (read layoffs) in many high-profile firms.
However, while the level of surprises relative to expectations are the lowest in years, it is still positive.
Cyclical sectors are the standout performer and Tech is the major source of weakness - not surprising since the big layoffs have largely been in tech.
How does this play out?
Positive news is being rewarded while negative news is being punished.
GRYNING | Technicals is a quantitative detector of extreme investor behavior that signals the beginning or end of a trend.
It answers the question of WHEN to act.
It is re-trained with every update using an extensive optimization and selection process (part design, part randomization, part brute-force), then executed to attempt a prediction and tested against past data. At the request of some of my readers and colleagues within the industry, I feel it has reached a level of maturity and performance to be of interest to a wider audience.
Examples of Tops & Bottoms by way of Extensions shown below:
Become a member by clicking on the link above. For more colour and a reader guide, click here.