Commodities Chartbook | May 12, 2025
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Our Uranium Equity Index looked interesting two weeks ago, the chart still looks interesting today.
We are sceptical of utilities here - I suspect a classic capital cycle issue is about to bite as utilities continue their focus on investment and building, not harvesting returns.
Someday there will be a time to dumbster dive back into US Renewables - index is mix of developers and OEMs. Not sure of we’re there just yet.
EU/UK NatGas and Oil producers. Are we going to get a bounce?
Lithium - someday you will be back in the spotlight. Currently trading near 52wk lows.
Looks like there is alot of dry powder available on the long-side in both WTI and NatGas.
At the same time, directional sentiment, based on net trader scores, still suggests a negative tilt in the short term (these charts are not yet in the Chartbook). I suspect continued weakness in the short/medium term, until economic fog clears. If it clears and it is a recession, I would be surprised if oil did not fall further, despite favourable long-term supply/demand dynamics.
To close it out, the collapse in expected CapEx spending over the next six months is just a little concerning.
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