Au - changing state, again.

Macro Perspectives: Tue 29 Sep 2020

The U.S. Presidential debate will take place tonight and will likely be one of the more interesting broadcasts of recent years.

About 84 million people tuned into the first Clinton/Trump debate back in 2016 - breaking a record for presidential debates. I suspect tonight will blow that number away. Muhammad Ali fights used to draw over a billion viewers, given the global consequences of this election, this debate might match those types of numbers.

For the past month, the polls have shown a clear advantage to Biden. As mentioned yesterday, Biden win would likely mean a ramp up of government guidelines on virus mitigation, which would include more restrictions on business capacity – more economic damage, with a strategy focused on the vaccine timeline.

The Biden scenario seems to be what markets have started pricing in since early August, which includes an increased risk of a deflationary bust - we've had lower stocks, lower commodities prices, lower gold (reversing some of the inflation trade).

The expectations bar will likely reset after tonight, and with global markets broadly higher on Monday, we're possibly seeing the pendulum swing back a bit toward Trump.

Now, with all of this said, with gold down about 10% from the highs of August, maybe the easiest bet here is on gold - not as an inflation hedge, but as a safe-haven, in the scenario of a contested election.