An Economic Letter | Pause?
This week, we focus on US-China trade developments in light of the economies’ joint 90-day tariff pause announcement. The extent of the interim tariff cuts has surpassed investors’ expectations.
Latest US-China trade developments
Financial market sentiment has remained fairly buoyant despite the flare-up in US-China trade tensions in April. Recent messaging from both sides has moved away from the fiery rhetoric of previous months, adopting a more conciliatory tone aimed at de-escalating rather than intensifying frictions. Encouragingly, developments earlier this week reinforced this shift: the US and China issued a joint statement agreeing to a 90-day cooling-off period as they pursue trade talks following a relationship “reset.” During this time, the US will reportedly reduce its 145% tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% by May 14, while China will lower its 125% tariffs on US imports to 10%.
Markets have understandably reacted positively, as seen in chart 1, with this move representing a significant rollback of mutual tariffs and bringing rates much closer to their pre “Liberation Day” baseline. As a result, the growth-dampening effects from elevated tariffs are now considerably more muted - though it is worth noting that these measures remain temporary.
The latest developments are indeed cause for optimism, as neither the US nor China stood to benefit from maintaining steep, mutually applied tariffs. For China, this short-term reprieve will help ease what would have been another significant growth headwind, compounding an already challenging set of domestic issues.
Among these, China continues to struggle with persistently low inflation - likely stemming from weak demand and a long-standing problem of excess supply, both of which have contributed to downward pressure on prices. This is particularly evident in producer prices, which have been falling for years now, as shown in chart 2. These underlying drivers likely explain why the Blue Chip survey panellists continue to expect weak price pressures in China this year - a topic discussed in more detail later.
Also, the sustained price decline not only highlights China's oversupply problem but has also provoked frustration among trading partners who had to absorb the effects.
First round effects of US tariffs on China
Moving next to initial hard numbers reflecting the effects of the US' 145% tariffs before the announced pause, China’s April trade data were released last week.
Exports rose a strong 8.1% y/y, as shown in chart 3 - well above expectations. This eased initial concerns that the US-imposed tariffs would severely hit trade. While the April export print beat forecasts, it was driven by several underlying factors. A key contributor was significant front-loading by importers ahead of the tariff implementation in mid-April, which likely offset the drop in shipments that followed. As a result, though April’s data capture the early impact of the steep US tariffs, they also reflect a surge in pre-tariff activity, making the figures somewhat noisy.
On the import side, shipments to China declined modestly, extending the recent trend of weak import growth. Although the drop was less severe than expected, continued weakness in imports may reflect subdued domestic demand - a concerning signal.
A closer look at the April data (chart 4) shows that China’s stronger-than-expected export performance was largely driven by shipments to ASEAN economies, India, and Taiwan, where exports posted double-digit y/y growth. This surge reflects several dynamics.
First, it underscores the deep integration of regional supply chains and the critical role of Chinese inputs in broader manufacturing processes.
Second, it points to these economies’ capacity to absorb some of China’s excess capacity—diverted from the US, which has become a less viable destination due to steep tariffs.
However, it remains uncertain whether these markets can sustainably absorb such redirected trade flows. Exports to the EU and Japan also grew in April, though at a more modest pace. Overall, the surge in shipments to regional and European partners more than offset the sharp 21% y/y drop in exports to the US.
May Blue Chip survey outlook
Next, we turn to investor and analyst expectations for global growth amid the seemingly unrelenting stream of trade developments between the US and its trading partners. The latest Blue Chip survey results continue to paint a bleak picture for global growth, with panellists having sharply downgraded their forecasts in the May survey compared to those expressed in December last year, as shown in chart 5.
However, given the recent and substantial de-escalation in US-China trade tensions - and barring any new growth-negative developments - panellists may soon be compelled to revise their outlooks upward. Notably, the May survey did not capture this week’s positive trade breakthrough, and a significant portion of the tariff burden has now been temporarily lifted from both economies.
Lastly, we examine investor and analyst expectations for inflation in light of US-China trade developments prior to this week’s positive news. Understandably, Blue Chip panellists had significantly revised upward their inflation outlook for the US, given the potentially inflationary effects of the previously announced tariffs. In contrast, the inflation outlook for China has become increasingly pessimistic, largely due to the structural factors discussed in earlier sections.
However, with the latest de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, expectations for US inflation - and even those for some other economies - now stand to be revised downward. Whether expectations for Chinese inflation can be meaningfully adjusted upward remains uncertain.
Looking further ahead, attention will also turn to US President Trump’s other 90-day pause, specifically concerning his “reciprocal” tariffs on economies other than China. The outcome of these trade discussions will be critical in determining the trajectory of future inflation expectations.
